Electric Vehicle sales predictions

Many studies by various consulting companies provide forecasts for the sales of Electric Vehicle (EV), especially electric cars, in the coming decades.

Most forecasts include Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV). The most pessimistic ones predict that, by 2020, the sales of electric cars will reach 3% of all new cars, while the most optimistic predict around 15%. As shown in the graph below, studies usually forecast that EV sales will increase in a linear fashion for decades.

Electric car sales forecast as per pessimistic and optimistic studies - click to enlarge

Going-Electric makes no prediction regarding electric car sales in 2020, because it will largely depend on the incentives that public authorities will provide to electric car manufacturers and consumers during the introduction period - which is largely unpredictable and subject to frequent changes.

On the other hand, Going-Electric confidently predicts that the sales curve will not be linear: sometimes after 2020, it will rapidly rise to a near 100%, as per the dotted curves below.

Going-Electric pessimistic and optimistic forecast for electric car sales - click to enlarge

We believe that electric car sales will increase sharply sometimes between 2020 and 2030 for the following reasons:

• High production volumes and technological improvements will sufficiently reduce EV purchase price to make them competitive against Internal Combustion Vehicles (ICVs).
   
• In 10 or 20 years time, the price of oil will most probably be much higher than today, deterring consumers from using ICVs.
   
• Once EVs are accepted by consumers, public authorities are likely to restrain the use of ICVs within city limits in order to reduce urban pollution and noise and offset the cost ICV externalities (such as health effects and building renovation). This will be a strong incentive for purchasing electric cars.

So if the number of EVs sold in 2020 is anyone's guess, it is very likely that electric cars will become the norm sometimes between 2030 and 2040. In order to remain competitive, car manufacturers must now start concentrating all efforts towards this technological shift.