Future scenarios for alternative powertrains

Going-Electric's contribution to Question 4.1 of the European Commission's Consultation for a European strategy on Clean and Energy-efficient Vehicles.

Question 4.1: What are the state of play and the future scenarios of technological developments in alternative powertrains (electric and hydrogen) and their market penetration?

1. As we mentioned in our answer to question 2.1, hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) are still in an experimental development stage. It is far too early to make credible projections on their potential market penetration, which may only happen in a distant future.

2. Unlike FCV, Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) is an old technology that dominated the market until 90 years ago. It has leaped forward in recent years and is likely to significantly progress in the coming years, BEV technology is mature enough for a large penetration of the urban and commuter car market.

3. Unlike series hybrids (such as the Toyota Prius) whose technology is complex, the Extended Range Electric Vehicle (EREV) technology is rather simple, since it consists in two well known technologies: BEV and generator. EREVs technology is mature enough for a large penetration of the long-range vehicle and family car markets.

4. What is holding down EV market development and penetration is that nowadays EVs cost significantly more than equivalent Internal Combustion Vehicle (ICVs), because EVs and their component are still produced in small volumes.

It is a chicken-and-egg situation: EV prices are high because volumes are low, and EV volumes are low because prices are high. It is the duty of governments to put an end to this situation, because EVs bring benefits to society, not to their owners. So hardly no-one will buy an EV without an aggressive public incentive scheme, which should include both financial and non-financial incentives (read more in 6.1).

Such incentives should only be offered temporarily: EV technology being comparatively much simpler, it is likely that high volumes will lower EV prices at or below equivalent ICV prices. But until then, consumer incentives are vital for a successful initial EV market penetration.

Initial EV market penetration is likely to be slow. Since it depends mainly on what consumer incentives government will provide and since governments tend to be unpredictable, it is quite impossible to reliably predict how fast EVs will penetrate the market in the initial stage.

However, it is quite clear that once EVs have gained public acceptance and EV prices have reached a competitive level, EVs will rapidly conquest nearly 100% of the passenger car market, notably because government are likely to restrict ICVs from city centres. This is largely overlooked by most market researches on EVs.

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