Re-adjustment of CARS 21 mid-term vision

Going-Electric's contribution to Question 1 of the European Commission's Consultation for a European strategy on Clean and Energy-efficient Vehicles.

Question 1: Should the vision agreed in the CARS 21 mid-term review be now adjusted? (i.e. 2020 perspective of improved combustion engine’s market dominance combined with growing market penetration of electric and hydrogen vehicles and hybridisation conceived as the bridging technology and 2050 perspective of transport decarbonisation)

Yes, the vision agreed in the CARS 21 mid-term review should indeed now be adjusted.

It is clear that Electric Vehicles (EVs) – including Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs, also called series hybrids), and possibly hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) in a more distant future – are the solution for clean and energy-efficient passenger road transport (read more in our answer to question 2.1).

It is also likely that the car market will increasingly be divided into two main segments representing the two major car usages:

• Daily commuting and short trips: This usage represents about 80% of cars mileage. It is often at slow speed with only one occupant.
   
  For this usage, small and ultra-small BEVs, as well as electric two-wheelers, are most suitable, since:
   
  • BEV is the cleanest and most energy-efficient technology available today. Generalising BEVs in cities would significantly reduce urban noise and pollution, while reducing CO2 emissions and oil consumption.
     
  • Small and ultra-small vehicles as well as two-wheelers are faster in congested traffic and easier to park. They occupy less space in traffic and parking, thereby decreasing congestion.
     
• Intercity trips and holidays travel: For cars having to cover long distances, which is often at high speed with several occupants, the comfort and safety of a large car is beneficial. For this usage, EREVs are the cleanest and most energy-efficient technology.

It is clear that a growing number of major car manufacturers, such as Renault, Mitsubishi and GM, as well as newcomers, such as Lumeneo (France), BYD (China) and REVA (India), are coming to the market with credible EVs.

What is less clear is how fast these products will penetrate the market, since it essentially depends, in the initial stage, on the incentives that government will provide. However, it is clear – although often overlooked – that once EVs become accepted by consumers, ICVs will be restricted from city centres and EV market will rapidly boom to a near 100% of all passenger cars.

It is not clear either if, when and how hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) will penetrate the market, because its technology is still in the research stage. However, it is likely that FCVs will not substitute BEVs in the urban vehicle segment: their market will be limited to vehicles having to cover long distances, such as long-haul trucks, buses and boats, and possibly family cars, substituting EREVs.

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